Democratic Primary True Vote Model: Sanders has 52%

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Democratic Primaries True Vote Model: Bernie has 52%

Richard Charnin
June 19, 2016

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Democratic Primaries spread sheet

This model estimates Sanders’ True Vote. The base case estimate is that Sanders had 52.3% of the total vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is important to note that Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his
1) recorded share  in 24 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  
2) recorded share by greater than the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? 

In the primaries, it is likely that millions of prospective Sanders voters never voted.  The model assumes that Sanders…

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